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How to Understand Test
Results from a 12 Marker Test
Exact Match
An exact match using a 12 marker test indicates a 99% probability
of having the same ancestor. However, the ancestor may have existed
well before the Shirley surname was clearly fixed (as much as
2500 years ago). A 25 marker test will shorten the existence
of that shared ancestor to within the surname’s existence.
Off by 1 Marker (12 marker test)
These results suggest mathematically that there is a 50% likelihood
that the two families share the same direct male ancestor [Shirley?]
in 37 generations or less. There is a 90% probability that the
two families share the same direct male ancestor in 85 generations
or less. There is a 95% likelihood that the two families share
the same direct male ancestor in 103 generations or less. And
95% of the mathematical results fall in between generations 5
and 121.
Off by 2 Markers (12 marker test)
These results suggest mathematically that there is a 50% likelihood
that the two families share the same direct male ancestor [Shirley?]
in 61 generations or less. There is a 90% probability that the
two families share the same direct male ancestor in 122 generations
or less. There is a 95% likelihood that the two families share
the same direct male ancestor in 144 generations or less. And
95% of the mathematical results fall in between generations 14
and 165. |
Info on DNA Markers # 6 and # 9
Some markers change or mutate at a faster rate than others.
While that actual 'faster rate' has not yet been definitively
calculated, not all markers should be treated the same for evaluation
purposes.
The DNA markers #6 and #9 have shown a faster mutation rate
(i.e. change numbers) then the average, and therefore these markers
are very helpful at splitting lineages into sub sets, or branches,
within your family tree.
Explained another way, if you match exactly on all of the
markers except for one or a few of the markers we have determined
mutate more quickly, then despite the mutation this mismatch
only slightly decreases the probability of two people in your
surname group who match 11/12 or even 23/25 of not sharing a
recent common ancestor.
Info on DNA Markers # 10 and # 12
When comparing two sets of results, if the mutations at each
of the two markers 10 and 12 are off by the same number of steps,
and the mutations move in the same direction, meaning ascending
or descending, then we only count these two markers together
as ONE mutation, not TWO. |
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How to Understand Test Results
from a 25 Marker Test |
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Distance |
Relatedness |
Explanation |
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0 |
Related |
Your perfect 25/25 match means you share a common male ancestor
with a person who shares your surname (or variant). These two
facts clearly demonstrate relatedness. |
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1 |
Related |
You share the same surname (or a variant) with another male and
you mismatch by only one 'point' on only one marker. For most
closely related same surnamed individuals, the mismatch markers
are usually either DYS 439 or DYS 385 A, 385 B, and 389-1 from
our first panel of 12 markers, and from the second panel: DYS
#'s 458 459a 459b 449, 464 a-d, which have shown themselves to
move most rapidly. The probability of a close relationship is
very high. |
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2 |
Probably Related |
You share the same surname (or a variant) with another male and
you mismatch by two 'point' from the 25 markers we tested. For
most closely related and same surnamed individuals, the mismatch
markers are either DYS 439 or DYS 385 A, 385 B and 389-1 from
our first panel of 12 markers, and from the second panel: DYS
#'s 458 459 a 459b 449, 464 a-d, which have shown themselves
to move most rapidly. The probability of a close relationship
is good, however the results show mutations, and therefore more
time between the two same surnamed person. Continued testing
should find males near or perhaps identical to this group member. |
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3 |
Probably Not Related |
You share the same surname (or a variant) but are off by 3 'points'
or 3 locations on the 25 markers tested. If enough time has passed
it is possible that these two group members are distantly related
family members. However that would nearly require that each line
had passed a seperate mutation and one would have experienced
2! The only way to confirm or deny is to test additional family
lines and find where the mutation took place. Expressed another
way, assume your score puts you at 3 on the clock. Assume the
person 3 from you is at the 9 position. Only by further testing
can you find the person in between each of you...this in 'betweener'
becomes essential for you to find, and in their absence the possibility
of a match exists, but further evidence should be pursued. |
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4 |
Not Related |
21/25 is too far off to be considered related. Unlikely but vaguely
possible that the rule for ONLY Possible related applies. It
is important to determine what set of result most typifies 'most'
members of the group you are 'close' to matching. You may be
21/25 with an individual, but 23/25 with the center (most common)
of the group, and your potential relatedness to him is through
the center of the group. |
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5 |
Not Related |
20/25 You are not related and the odds greatly favor that you
have not shared a common male ancestor with this person in excess
of 2,000 years |
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6 |
Not Related |
19/25 You are not related and the odds greatly favor that you
have not shared a common male ancestor with this person in excess
of 5,000 years |
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>6 |
Not Related |
You are totally unrelated to this person. |
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Markers